The government sent its 2027 budget bill to Congress on Tuesday, meeting the constitutional deadline, but President Milei skipped the televised national address he delivered in each of the previous two years. He did not appear before the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Congress, either. No explanation was announced, and analysts in Buenos Aires read the silence as distance from a document whose numbers the government may struggle to defend on the campaign trail.
Argentina has operated under extensions of previous budgets for two consecutive years, a workaround that has given the executive broad discretionary power over spending without a fresh congressional mandate. Passing a 2027 budget would trade away some of that flexibility, but it would signal legislative cooperation to the bondholders and ratings analysts who track Argentina’s country-risk spread as a proxy for political stability.
Economy Minister Luis Caputo, who also stayed away from a formal presentation of the bill’s text, made the government’s pitch in a public appearance instead. He said the 2027 numbers would mark “a financial surplus for the fourth consecutive year; it will be the first time in our history that, without being in default, there have been four consecutive years of financial surplus.” He framed the achievement as evidence the government’s approach is working: “There’s no doubt we’re on the right track, but I want to stress that we did this for the first time while respecting private property and the sanctity of contracts.”
On pressure to loosen spending ahead of the vote, Caputo said the government would hold the line: “You don’t fight populism with more populism. You fight it with more orthodoxy.” He added that the private sector, not the state, should be doing the investing needed to sustain growth, and named lower taxes, lower interest rates and improved infrastructure as priorities.
None of the bill’s figures leaked before its release, unlike past years, when budget assumptions typically circulated informally for days. Caputo has told legislators and reporters in informal settings to expect roughly 16% inflation and about 4% economic growth for 2027, notably more optimistic than the consensus among private economists.
The Central Bank’s own Market Expectations Survey puts the median forecast for 2027 inflation at 20.5%, down from an estimated 30% for 2026. Its median growth forecast is 2.9%, against the government’s roughly 4%. Private consultancies fall within that range: C&T Asesores projects inflation below 20% and growth of 3.4%, while Invecq estimates 22% inflation and 2.5% growth. None matches the government’s figures.
The budget also arrived the same day the Senate debated a separate bill to eliminate Argentina’s PASO primary elections. Provincial governors, whose votes Milei’s minority party group in Congress needs for both measures, are pressing for public works funding and other transfers in exchange for backing the repeal, adding horse-trading to the budget talks before October’s midterm elections. The government has acknowledged it lacks the votes to pass the PASO bill in its current form.