Argentina's country risk index closed at 650 basis points on Friday, October 2, its highest since late 2025, as Economy Minister Luis Caputo told a business conference that half the rise comes from the global backdrop and half from some investors' fear of a return to the past.
The spread, which JP Morgan calculates as the extra yield Argentine dollar bonds pay over US Treasuries, rose about 2% on the day and 43 points in the first two days of October, from 607 on September 30. It has climbed from about 500 at the start of September and passed 600 for the first time since April on September 25.
Caputo, who is in Paris as part of Milei's Argentina Week delegation, appeared in an interview recorded beforehand and shown at the closing session of the 62nd IDEA Colloquium in Mar del Plata, the annual gathering of the country's business leaders. He said the economy faces "a pretty brutal external shock" and that "in any other context Argentina would have lasted five minutes."
The other half, he said, is domestic: some investors' "fear of going back to hell." "There will be no return to the past," he said, and he rejected a devaluation as the answer, arguing that it has never worked in Argentina.
Cabinet Chief Diego Santilli, in a message recorded in France for the conference, made a similar point, saying next year's vote will decide whether Argentina goes back to "a closed, obscurantist economy" or keeps advancing. IDEA president Santiago Mignone said the country needs to stop thinking only about next year and start thinking about the next 20.
The Paris announcements did not move markets. According to the Buenos Aires Herald, the spread ended the week at its highest in 2026 despite the government's presentation there of energy, mining and automotive projects. Local analysts cited a global bond sell-off and uncertainty over the 2027 campaign.
The next test is whether the spread holds above 600 in the coming week, and whether the half Caputo attributes to politics grows as the 2027 campaign nears.