Argentina’s economic activity in August was 1.7% below the same month of 2025 and 0.1% above July, after July’s 2.8% drop, INDEC, the national statistics agency, reported on Wednesday. The monthly comparison uses INDEC’s seasonally adjusted series, which strips out the usual calendar swings, and the figures are preliminary.
La actividad económica cayó 1,7% interanual en agosto de 2026 y subió 0,1% respecto a julio en la medición desestacionalizada
Translation: "Economic activity fell 1.7% year on year in August 2026 and rose 0.1% from July in the seasonally adjusted measure."
The rebound recovered a small part of July’s fall, which INDEC revised slightly. Economists surveyed ahead of the release had expected a larger gain. On INDEC’s seasonally adjusted series, July and August together average about 2.8% below the second quarter, by our calculation, and the second quarter was itself about 0.6% below the first. Unless September rebounds sharply, the third quarter would be a second straight quarterly decline, the usual definition of a technical recession.
Mining and quarrying (11.1%) led the five sectors that grew from a year earlier, while manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade pulled the total down most, INDEC said. Over January to August, activity is still 1.2% above the same months of 2025.
The government reads the data differently. Milei says seasonally adjusted series mismeasure an economy going through structural change, and Economy Minister Luis Caputo calls the monthly series too volatile to reflect reality. Both point to INDEC’s trend-cycle series, which smooths out one-off swings. Caputo has said that series showed growth of about 0.2% a month, which matched INDEC’s previous release. The August release revised it: the series shows no change in August or in any month since April. Caputo also said road works, mortgage lending and investment under the large-project incentive regime, known as RIGI, would support a recovery.
Analysts surveyed by the central bank expect the economy to contract again in the third quarter and to rebound in the fourth, and they cut their 2026 growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.5%. Economists have been warning of a second straight contraction since last month.
INDEC publishes the September estimate on November 24 and its third-quarter GDP report on December 16.