The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast for Argentina to 2.1% from 3.5% in its October World Economic Outlook, the Fund’s twice-yearly forecast, presented Tuesday at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.
The new number puts Argentina below the Fund’s projections for Latin America (2.3%) and the world (3.1%) this year. Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s research department, attributed the cut to weaker activity through the third quarter and softer domestic demand under tight financial conditions. The Fund still expects growth to recover in the last three months of 2026 and strengthen in 2027 and 2028, helped by better terms of trade (export prices against import prices), investment, and farm and energy exports.
For 2027, the IMF now sees growth of 3.5%, down from 4%. The Fund also expects higher prices than it did in April: average annual inflation of 32.5% in 2026, up from 30.4%, and 21.2% in 2027, up from 15.7%. These are averages across each year, not the December-to-December measure Argentines usually quote. Unemployment is projected at 7.6% in 2026, up from 7.2%, and 7.1% in 2027, up from 6.9%.
Others had already cut their numbers. The World Bank cut its 2026 forecast for Argentina last week to 2.1% from 3.6%, and the central bank’s monthly survey of private analysts (the REM) puts growth at 1.5% this year and 3% in 2027. INDEC, the national statistics agency, reported that activity fell 2.9% in July from June and that the economy contracted 0.6% in the April-June quarter. Private analysts expect another decline in July-September, which would meet the usual definition of a technical recession, two straight quarters of contraction.
The forecast came as Economy Minister Luis Caputo met IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok on Tuesday. Georgieva wrote on X that the Fund “welcomed improvements in economic fundamentals & resilience, anchored on fiscal discipline while many countries struggle with high deficits.” Caputo said she called Argentina’s fiscal discipline exemplary in the world despite global shocks.
The talks are part of the third review of Argentina’s US$20 billion IMF program, agreed in April 2025. Approval would release about US$869 million, but Argentina missed its first-half fiscal target and needs a waiver from the Fund. Caputo said the two teams will keep working to close the review, and the IMF’s executive board votes on it once staff and Argentina reach a technical agreement.
