Argentina’s country risk, the extra yield investors demand on its bonds over US Treasuries, jumped to 765 points on Monday from 707 on Friday, JP Morgan’s index showed, after Brazil re-elected President Lula.
That is the highest level since October 2025. Investors had bet on Lula’s rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, whom President Milei backed, and Argentine assets rallied after he led the Oct. 4 first round: country risk fell below 600 the next day. It had climbed back above 700 last week as oil prices rose and economic activity data came in weak.
At the close in New York, shares of Mercado Libre, the e-commerce company whose largest market is Brazil, were down about 8% from Friday. Shares of Argentine banks fell 7% to 9%.
The wholesale dollar, the rate banks and companies trade at, rose 11.50 pesos to 1,541 per dollar, a record in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation), according to the central bank. The informal “blue” dollar, sold outside banks and exchange houses, reached 1,575, Ámbito reported.
In Brazil, the São Paulo stock exchange paused trading for half an hour at the open, and its Ibovespa index was down more than 13% at the close. The real lost about 8% against the dollar by the Brazilian central bank’s reference rate.
Brazil is Argentina’s biggest export market: INDEC, the national statistics agency, reported US$9.8 billion of sales there in the first nine months of the year. A weaker real makes Brazilian goods cheaper against Argentine ones.
The US Federal Reserve announces its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday, a decision that also shapes demand for emerging-market bonds.
